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Potential for Extreme Wildfire Season in Southwest, East

By Dan Strumpf

March 22, 2002 With drought conditions persisting in southwestern and eastern states, national and local fire services are gearing up for what could be an extreme wildfire season.

Fire restrictions are currently in place throughout the southwest where 354 fires have already damaged nearly 15,000 acres since January, compared to 18 fires and 464 acres damaged over the same period last year. With fuel levels critical following one of the driest winters in years, officials have started preparing for "an above-average fire season."

The Southwest Coordination Center of the National Park Service, reacting to current and predicted dry conditions coupled with a multi-year drought and low winter snowpack and precipitation, recently issued a fire warning for northern New Mexico. The warning includes some of the same areas where fires raged for weeks during the spring of 2000, causing more than $450 million in property damage and destroying nearly one million acres (see "Spontaneous Combustion," Outside magazine, September 2000). The warning includes Bandelier, Capulin Volcano, and Fort Union National Monuments.

Currently at the second of five preparedness levels in the southwest, firefighters are doing what they can to reduce the hazard while they have the chance.

Throughout the country fire agencies are completing the annual job of thinning forests and starting controlled or prescribed fires in efforts to reduce fuel levels. Firefighters are also training and stockpiling equipment to ensure they are ready when things heat up.

Eric Reynolds, the assistant fire chief of the Boise BLM Smoke Jumpers said his men are ready. In anticipation of a busy season he has nearly doubled the amount of available supply packs and accelerated the rookie training program, making a total of 88 men available for service when the elite group starts jumping in late May.

But even as the firefighters dig in, they are looking skyward with the knowledge that their efforts could mean little if the weather doesn't cooperate.

Mid-summer thunderstorms in New Mexico may seem a wet blessing, but according to Heath Hockenberry, the assistant fire weather program manager for the Bureau of Land Management, they could prove to be a wolf in sheep's clothing.

"A monsoon with dry-lightning over the southwest could mean big trouble," he said. "It's all dependent on the monsoons."

The extreme drought conditions in the East Coast—ranging from North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania and as far west as Kentucky—have officials hoping for late spring rains.

"The month of April will be critical. If drought conditions continue, fires could start up again in October," Hockenberry said.

And while lightning may be the major concern in the southwest, firefighters are concerned about other ignition sources in the Atlantic States.

"As far as the problems in the east are concerned many are related to humans," Hockenberry said. "Nearly 50 percent involve arson."

Firefighters insist that regardless of weather conditions they will be ready for whatever the wildfire season may bring.

"The last time we had a slow fire year was1997," Reynolds said. "It's always busier than you would think."

For information on wildfire prevention and preparedness, check out the Park Service's FireNet and the National Interagency Fire Center's prevention and education page