Subscribe to Outside Magazine
advertisement
Survival Guru

Today's Question
How do you make primitive snowshoes? answer

What should you do if you get lost driving in a snow storm? answer

Eco Adventurer

Today's Question
What is the greenest ski and snowboard on the market? answer

Can I really damage a coral reef with sunscreen while snorkeling? answer

Videos Ask Dave
  • What kind of dog will make me look manlier? answer
  • Is there a sport that safely combines my twin passions for guns and kayaks? answer
  • How come most of the world's cultures enjoy eating goat, but Americans don't? answer

Online Favorites

Special Issues

Photo Galleries
save this page print this page email this page
  • share this page

1995 Gatorade Ironman Triathlon World Championship

The Line--1995 Ironman
Women Men
Paula Newby-Fraser 1:1 Mark Allen 2:1
Karen Smyers 5:1 Greg Welch 3:1
Isabel Mouthon 6:1 Jurgen Zack 4:1
Wendy Ingraham 20:1 Jeff Devlin 6:1
Sue Latshaw 7:1 Christian Bustos 7:1
Fernanda Keller 8:1 Thomas Hellriegel 8:1
Katinka Wiltenburg 9:1 Olaf Sabatschus 9:1
Donna Peters 10:1 Rainer Moeller 5:1
Uta Mueckel 25:1 Lothar Leder 5:1
Sabine Westhoff 25:1 Holger Lorenz 7:1
Julianne White 25:1 Pauli Kiuru 6:1
-- -- Alec Rukosuev 20:1
-- -- Ken Glah 15:1
-- -- Scott Tinley 50:1


The Ironman odds-makers speak
By Timothy Carlson


THE WOMEN

PAULA NEWBY-FRASER -- 1:1
Welch certainly has nothing close to the inevitability of Paula Newby-Fraser, now gunning for her eighth Ironman, and fifth straight. Newby-Fraser, tired of digging so deep into her soul and reserves and well of pain to pull out yet another victory, says "This will likely be the last time I come to Kona fully prepared, no excuses, healthy, my whole reputation on the line." In other words, take your best shot, world. This is it. If you want credit for knocking off the Queen of the Lava, this is the last stop. But before you accept your mission, please realize that Paula has won 21 major long distance titles: Seven in Hawaii, four times at Nice and at Japan Ironman, three Ironman Europes, two Ironman Lanzarotes and one Zofingen Powerman. Nobody else comes close. In addition to her 8:55.28 record in Hawaii, she has an 8:50.56 at Ironman Germany. No other woman has come within 10 or 15 minutes of those times.

KAREN SMYERS -- 5:1
So Karen Smyers, of Lincoln, Massachusetts, the natural sprinter, the 1990 short course World Champion, a five-time U.S. Olympic distance champion, the reluctant Ironman competitor, who once said that doing the Ironman was "completely absurd. I thought it was an event for lunatics. It tested not your fitness and how fast you are, but how stupidly you could do this stupidness, how many dumb things could you put yourself through in a row? I swore I would never do it," is now condemned by her ability to try to bring Paula down. Smyers tested the Ironman waters gingerly in 1993 and got a relatively painless fourth. Last year, she was more serious and finished second. Smyers got kicked in the face and lost her goggles on the swim, then struggled on the bike while Paula flew. Then Smyers applied some of her 2:42 pure marathon speed and cranked out a 3:18 run in the heat to take 5 minutes from Newby-Fraser's 13-minute lead. But Smyers only took time when Newby-Fraser was having a conversation with herself to get back to business. She took nothing after Newby-Fraser put her game face back on at Mile 8 of the run. Smyers suffered an attack of enervating giardia after the Pan Am Games in March and her season suffered a little from the exhaustion. Able to focus more on Ironman after signing a big contract with Nike, Smyers lost a little speed and lost to short-course champion Michellie Jones more often than the year before when she was Triathlete of the Year. But now, Smyers' Ironman training is going well. "On the right day, I can beat Paula in the water," said Smyers. "I can beat her on the bike. And I can out-run her. The question is, can I do it all together? She has been the master of putting all the pieces together on the same day and I know how hard it is. But I wouldn't be coming to Kona if I didn't believe I could."

ISABEL MOUTHON -- 6:1
Newby-Fraser said of Mouthon: "She has learned to race really well for seven hours." That was a reference to Mouthon's recent domination of the Nice Triathlon, whose distances are about two hours short of Ironman level. And Kona is neither Nice nor nice to first-timers. The 29-year-old French champion is the current leader of the ITU world Olympic-distance circuit and trains with her twin sister, Beatrice, who is not on the same level with Isabel the way that Patricia and Sylviane Puntous were. Isabel did finish second at the demanding Zofingen Powerman Duathlon in freezing weather this year, but most observers don't give the Mouthons much of a chance to challenge Newby-Fraser at her peak at the race that she virtually owns.

WENDY INGRAHAM -- 20:1
This ebullient Walnut Creek California star--known as Wingnut for her wacky sense of humor--used to be regarded as a great swimmer, good biker, and lousy runner who often took the lead at Hawaii and was the last person Newby-Fraser passed on the road to the bike turnaround at Hawi. Then, last year, Ingraham got serious. She got a contract with super-agent Murphy Reinschreiber, the same fellow that handles Paula; she got contracts with TYR, Timex, Giro and Trek and lots of ads and she got serious about her run and bike. This paid off with a fourth at Ironman Hawaii 1994 and a win this year at the Australian Ironman, her first major endurance title. Now Ingraham feels she can swim and bike with Newby-Fraser and just needs to pull some more speed out of her run. She showed a lot of guts holding on in Australia this year while she was in pain on the run, but whipping Smyers, Mouthon or Paula looks like an order too tall.

SUE LATSHAW -- 7:1
Last year at Ironman, Latshaw, who was in Hawaii in 1993, made a brave prediction that she would do battle with Newby-Fraser. But in the race she discovered for the first time that she was afflicted with asthma and had to drop out. Once she learned to treat that condition, Latshaw was eager to do battle with Newby-Fraser at Ironman Germany this year, and made a kamikaze move on the run, pulling to within two-and-a-half minutes of Paula until she blew up in the 90 degree heat, dropping to third behind Katinka Wiltenburg of Holland, and 24 minutes behind Newby-Fraser. Of all current women triathletes, Boulder, Colorado's Latshaw is least afraid of trying to confront Newby-Fraser head-on and may come even closer if she paces herself smarter on Saturday.

FERNANDA KELLER -- 8:1
The beautiful and exotic Keller, an international model, scored a surprising third at Ironman Hawaii last year on one of its hottest days ever. She is the seventh-fastest woman runner in Ironman history with a 3:16 best, and an ever-improving bike, where she can push some big gears. But all her momentum starts once she gets out of the water, where she has the reputation of being a rock fish--a slow bottom feeder--who starts out seven to 10 minutes behind Newby-Fraser. Keller is hot when it's hot, on any day which most closely resembles the steamy climes of her home in Niteroi, Brazil. With this year's race earlier than usual on October 7, and forecasters expecting a hot race day, look for Fernanda on the podium again. Perennial contender in Hawaii: fourth in 1989, ninth in 1990, 13th in 1991, seventh in 1992 and 1993, third in 1994.

KATINKA WILTENBURG -- 9:1
Dutch star played her cards smarter than Latshaw for second in German Ironman this year but seems not to have the go-for-broke potential to contend with Newby-Fraser in Hawaii. Top 5.

DONNA PETERS -- 10:1
The Seattle star has enough bike to challenge and beat Newby-Fraser on bike up to half-Ironman distance, but muscular body costs her in the heat and especially the run, where Ironman is won. Last year her handlebars were mangled in a crash but she held on to fifth overall.

UTA MUECKEL -- 25:1
German star won the swim with 50:40 in Hawaii last year and held on for a 12th place finish. At Ironman Germany this year, she advanced to 5th woman. Still fast improving, a future threat.

SABINE WESTHOFF -- 25:1
Another rising German star who needs to build a bigger endurance base to improve on her eighth-place last year. Good swim, second-tier bike, needs work on her run.

JULIANNE WHITE -- 25:1
Canadian star who lives in Vista, California was on the verge of challenging Newby-Fraser after her second at Ironman Hawaii in 1992. But losing 12 inches of her colon after 1993 Ironman Hawaii leaves her still recovering her killer run and huge endurance base that put her on the verge of greatness. Rock fish swimmer--excellent bike--once-great runner.




THE MEN

MARK ALLEN -- 2:1
Now, after a an odd comeback year in which there was no early triumph at Nice or Zofingen to reinforce his aura of invincibility, and his 21-minute victory at Ironman Japan was achieved without any of the major Hawaiian rivals, Allen has returned to battle where the framework has changed in major ways. Zack now has Hellriegel, a partner in crime to make a bike breakaway that could permanently alter the conventional Ironman strategy of staying with the pack until the run and the best runner wins. In 1993, Allen recalled that staying with a healthy Zack on the bike was like a nightmare where he was trying to hold on to an enormous steel cable swinging over a deep chasm. In 1995, it will only be worse. Zack is stronger, healthier, and ran harder in the heat of Germany. If anything he is faster on the bike. Now he no longer has Greg Welch's number in the clutch and can't guarantee he will run away from him in the marathon. But Allen's ace in the hole is that nobody except Scott, not even Welch, has run within eight minutes of Allen's 2:40 marathon at the end of the Ironman. Record: Won Hawaiian Ironman 1989-93 and Nice 10 times as well as every other major title at least once.

GREG WELCH -- 3:1
Welch won short and long before his 1994 Hawaiian Ironman victory. This season he injured his soleus muscle in his calf winning St. Croix in May and it popped on him at Ironman Germany, where he dropped out 10 miles into the run after dropping a whopping 16 minutes to Zack and Hellriegel on the bike. Dave Scott says dropping out was good for Welch's psyche--Scott sees decisive defeats as permanent scars on the confidence and inner arrogance needed to prevail at Ironman. Welch is throttling back even further his happy-go-lucky charisma and remains cautious and quiet on the eve of defending his title. He's saving his energy for an anticipated running duel with the Grip.

JURGEN ZACK -- 4:1
Now 30, Zack has matured from a killer biker, struggling runner, into the total package. He still likes his Ironman nickname "The Dictator," because he dictates the pace on the bike. Now, Zack is even stronger after a weightlifting program and intense focus on his running. Last year, Zack didn't push the bike so hard because he was suffering from a bad cold on race day. This year, his eye seems set on a taking another 5 minutes off his 4:27 bike record and exacting maximum pain on Allen and Welch. Zack's strategy is to still have a 2:50 marathon in himself, but neutralize Allen's and Welch's running legs with a hard bike. In Germany, Zack pulled off a slick two-part breakaway with Hellriegel. At first he let Hellriegel go, then held back with the pack. Then Zack himself, with his greater power, made a decisive move to lose the rest and joined Hellriegel on a two-man putsch. They won't get away with that in Hawaii, especially since media vehicles with draft benefits are more limited in Hawaii than Germany. Zack still says he needs a five-minute lead on the bike to win with his 2:50 run. To do that, Zack needs better than his 1994 54:15 swim.

JEFF DEVLIN -- 6:1
Former Coors Light duathlon champion and 3d in the 1991 and 1994 Gatorade Ironman is back on his game after a second in the Mr. T's Olympic distance triathlon in August. If Devlin can swim in the 53 range instead of 58, he won't have to use up so much gas on the bike where he passed 159 people en route to a third overall. If Devlin has a decent swim, he can run under 2:50 instead of 2:59--which will be required for a win.

CRISTIAN BUSTOS -- 7:1
The Chilean national hero at 29 is just coming back to his 1992 level where he dueled Allen even to Mile 15 of the run. Cristian was run over by a media Jeep at a small race in Argentina in January 1994 which severed an artery in his right arm. After grafting nerves and a vein from his leg to repair the damage to his arm, Bustos dueled Allen at Pucon, and raced to 9th at Germany. Bustos wasn't worried about a slow marathon there -- he figured he just needed more base mileage. But worries over his crippled right hand were answered with a 51 minute swim at Germany. Now Bustos' mileage is back, he is bursting with quiet confidence that he may be all the way back at Kona. Injury may have had its good aspects--Bustos' admirable work ethic had almost run him into the ground by 1993. Now he is smarter about rest in training.


THE GERMANS

THOMAS HELLRIEGEL -- 8:1
At 24, Hellriegel reminds observers of the Dolph Lundgren Russian fighting machine in "Rocky 4." After some success in short distance triathlons, Hellriegel opened his long distance career with a 5th at Nice in 1994, then broke through with a win on the tough Ironman Lanzarote course this spring and cemented his rep with a close second to Zack in Germany. Rep: Impervious to pain, a tough bike, a strong will.

OLAF SABATSCHUS -- 9:1
Also 24, his record seems to be on a straight graph of improvement that might land him into the winner's circle at Kona some year if not this one. He was 10th in the 1993 Ironman, 5th last year, 3d at Strongman Japan, and second at Powerman Zofingen this year. Sabatschus ran his Hawaiian Ironman marathon 10 seconds faster than Dave Scott last year and looks like a sure bet for a future Ironman win.

RAINER MOELLER -- 5:1
Moeller brings speed and endurance to the table at Kona. At 28, he beat Spencer Smith and the rest of the world class speedsters at the Olympic distance European championships this summer. But he was also 3rd at 1994 Ironman Germany in 8:04 and this year he was third at Powerman Zofingen. Potential winner.

LOTHAR LEDER -- 5:1
Smiling, sunny Lothar is beloved by European fans. In 1993, he was second at Ironman Canada; in 1994, fourth at Ironman Germany; second at Nice; and sixth at Ironman Hawaii. This year he moved up to third at Ironman Germany. At 24, he seems to have reached the stage where he isn't asking Rob Barel, as he did at Nice in 1994, "How much is second place?" as they dueled to the finish.

HOLGER LORENZ -- 7:1
He was eighth at Ironman Hawaii in 1993, fourth at Nice in 1994 and this year he won Ironman Australia. Lorenz, at 26, only knows one speed: flat out on the bike. When he took the lead on the bike midway through Hawaii Ironman in 1993, people were asking "Who is that guy?" Now they know.

PAULI KIURU -- 6:1
Attacked for his reliance on a heart monitor for pacing rather than his competitive heart, this Finnish champion has been almost entirely discounted after his collapse last year. But Kiuru's Hawaiian Ironman record of fifth in 1989, third in 1990, fourth in 1991, third in 1992, and second in 1993 in Hawaii is second only to Allen in excellence and consistency. Dave Scott among others has said Kiuru lacks the killer instinct. Kiuru has not had good running results this year and unless his solo training has gone remarkably well, will probably not be the factor he was two years ago.

ALEC RUKOSUEV -- 20:1
This Russian expatriate who now lives and trains in Florida has world class swim speed and nearly a 30-flat 10K time and a 2:21 marathon best. But that darn bike remains a problem. A 13th in Hawaii in 1993 promised a lot. Last year he got sick at Kona and was derailed, but this year he won the Panama City half Ironman Kona qualifier for the third year in a row and dominated some sprint events. At 27, he remains a possible future Ironman champion and poised on the edge of greatness. Needs focus.

KEN GLAH -- 15:1
Odds would be much shorter for this Westchester, Pennsylvania triathlete if he hadn't suffered from a mysterious, energy sapping virus for much of this year. Glah kamikaze'd on the bike and led the pack with Zack in the 1994 Hawaiian Ironman. He paid by Mile 8 of the run for deficient water and calorie consumption on the bike and faded to ninth. But he seems to have cured those problems this year. Questionable if his endurance form is all the way back yet, though. Glah's Kona record is impressive: fifth in 1987, third in 1989, 12th in 1990, seventh in 1991, 14th in 1992, fourth in 1993 and ninth in 1994 after leading much of the day.

SCOTT TINLEY -- 50:1
Tinley, at 38, the 1982 and 1985 Ironman champion, was a close second to Mark Allen in 1990 at the Hawaiian Ironman. Since then he has dropped to sixth in 1991, 13th in 1992, 42d in 1993 and 96th last year, almost off the charts. The reason: Tinley, of the rugged golden beach boy good looks and the multi-million dollar clothing empire--Tinley Performancewear, now owned by Reebok International--seems to prefer working out and its social aspects to peaking for any particular race any more. Taper? Let's run 20, Tinley seems to say. Let's bike a century. Let's swim two hours. The closer to the race the better. So now he has to endure jokes about predictions he would be the "fifth woman" in Kona. He's hardly that bad. In 1994, he was second at the Canadian Ironman, third at Alcatraz and fourth in the World Cup in Australia. Tinley did Nice and the Hawaiian Ironman in 1985 practically back to back and it paid off with a win in Hawaii, where most of his top competitors competed solely in Nice because that was the last year the Ironman held off on prize money. Now Tinley writes columns for practically all the triathlon and multisport magazines, and competes in mountain bike triathlons. Long may he run!




©2000, Mariah Media Inc.